N.I. Yusupova, Doctor of Technical Sciences,

G.R. Shakhmametova, Candidate of Technical Sciences,

K.R. Yenikeeva, Candidate of Technical Sciences

(Ufa State Aviation Technical University)

 

INTELLIGENT INFORMATION SUPPORTING FOR RISK ANALYSIS

OF THE OIL SECTOR'S DANGEROUS INDUSTRIAL OBJECTS

 

Background

The oil industry is characterized by the accidents hazard. It is necessary to carry out the risk analysis of these accidents, which is a complex multicomponent scientific and technical challenge.

Aims and Objectives

It is necessary to develop and implement an approach to support of taking decisions in the risk analysis process of the oil sector's dangerous industrial objects, using modern information technologies.

Methods

On the basis of systems analysis, control theory and decision making, knowledge representation, computer-aided design systems we have developed software products that can be used for the risk analysis process's intelligent information supporting.

Results

It has been developed an expert system prototype for decision support in the process of the hazards identification. For modeling the impacts of the hazards it has been created a specialized program which is working in GIS. Analysis of the effectiveness of the proposed approach has shown positive results.

 

 

Key words: dangerous industrial object, risk analysis, accident simulation, intelligent information support, expert system, GIS system.

 

Literature

1. Rybakov S.N., Mayer S.D., Tarasov A.G. Razlivi, chto khoroshego [Elektronnyy resurs] // Tsentr ekologii TEK [Oil Spills, What There is Good [Internet resource] // Ñenter of Ecology TEK]: sait. URL: http://cetek.ru/informaciya-i-analitika/razlivy-chto-xoroshego (data obrashcheniya 25.01.2011).

2. Akimov V.A, Lesnykh V.V., Radaev N.N. Riski v prirode, tekhnosfere, obshchestve i ekonomike [Risks in Nature, Technosphere, Society and Economy]. Moscow: Delovoy Express, 2004. 352 p.

3. Gavrilova T.A., Khoroshevskiy V.F. Bazy znaniy intellektualynykh system [Knowledge Bases of Intelligent Systems]. Saint-Petersburg: Piter, 2000. 384 p.

4. Chernyakhovskaya L.R., Startseva Ye.B., Nikulina N.O. Issledovaniye metodiki razrabotki baz znaniy na osnove ekspertnoy sistemy EXSYS i knigi pravil RULEBOOK: Metodicheskiye ukazaniya k lab. rabotam po kursu «Metody iskusstvennogo intellekta, bazy znaniy, ekspertnyye sistemy» [Study the Methodology of Developing Knowledge Bases on the Basis of an Expert System EXSYS and Books of Rules RULEBOOK: Guidelines for Lab. Work on the Course «Methods of Artificial Intelligence, Knowledge Base, Expert Systems»]. Ufa: UGATU, 1997. 26 p.

5. Savchuk V.P. Bayyesovskiye metody statisticheskogo otsenivaniya: Nadezhnosty tekhn. obyyektov (The Bayes Methods of Statistical Estimation: The Reliability of Techn. Objects). Moscow: Nauka, 1989. 322 p.

6. Enikeeva K.R. To the Problem of an Estimation of Accident Risk at Dangerous Industrial Objects // Proc. of the Round-Table Discussion Information Technologies and Mathematical Methods of Investigation in Economics. Ufa: UGATU, 2006. V.1. P. 142-148.

7. Enikeeva K.R. K voprosu ob otsenke riska avariy na opasnykh proizvodstvennykh obyyektakh // Prinyatiye resheniy v usloviyakh neopredelennosti: mezhvuz. nauch. sb. [On the Estimation of the Risk of Accidents at Hazardous Industrial Facilities // Decision Making Under Uncertainty: Intercollegiate Scientific Collection]. Ufa: UGATU, 2007. No. 4. P. 255-261.

 

The authors

Yusupova Nafisa I., Doctor of Technical Sciences, Professor

Ufa State Aviation Technical University

Head of Computational Mathematics and Cybernetics Chair

Dean of the Faculty of computer science and robotics

Russian Federation, 450000, Ufa, ul. K. Marksa, 12

tel./fax: (347) 273-77-17

e-mail: yussupova@ugatu.ac.ru

 

Shakhmametova Guzel R., Candidate of Technical Sciences

Ufa State Aviation Technical University

Assistant Professor of Computational Mathematics and Cybernetics Chair

Russian Federation, 450000, Ufa, ul. K. Marksa, 12

tel: (347) 273-79-67

e-mail: shakhgouzel@mail.ru

 

Yenikeeva Karina R., Candidate of Technical Sciences

Ufa State Aviation Technical University

Senior Lecturer of Computational Mathematics and Cybernetics Chair

Russian Federation, 450000, Ufa, ul. K. Marksa, 12

tel: (347) 273-79-67

e-mail: enikeevka@rambler.ru